The 2008 Oracle: Dems

Who has the best chance of capturing the 2008 Democratic nomination? If you're interested in the windom of the crowds, you can try web sites that allow anyone to vote online, like this one. dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

Given the strong biases inherent in these online polls, I'd put more stock in opinion meters that ask people to put their money where their mouths are, like the Iowa Electronic Markets. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be a market set up yet for party nominees, just Dems. vs. Reps. in the general election.

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You can also glean something from respected polls, although polls this early are mainly gaging name recognition. Here's a cross section of expert opinions from Markos Moulitsas, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post and the folks and Politcal Derby. All spend plenty of time pondering one of the questions du jour for political junkies. The order the candidates are listed in?: my own assessment of the current odds.

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Future version of the Oracle will expand the list of experts. dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

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-------------------------Daily Kos--___--- WaPo---_-_-- Political Derby

Hillary ------------------3 ---------------1------------------1

Obama ------------------1----------------3-----------------2

Edwards ----------------2---------------2------------------3

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Biden --------------------7---------------6 (tie)-----------6

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Vilsack-------------------8---------------5------------------5
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Richardson-------------4---------------4------------------4

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Kerry ------------------- 6 -------------- - ---- ----------- 9 (tie)

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Clark --------------------5 ---------------- ---------------- 8

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Dodd -------------------10 --------------6 (tie)-----------7

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Kucinich --------------11 -------------------------------- 9 (tie)